This week's edition of Oscar Watch is all about the concept of surprise. Last Tuesday the nominations for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards were announced, meaning that we're now roughly only three weeks away from the Oscars. I'm trying to curb my excitement, and to do that we're gonna be talking today about the potential for surprise all across the board come March 7th. Let's get started!
Many analysts are believing that at the moment the race towards the Oscars is simply a two pony show, between The Hurt Locker and Avatar, both are clearly frontrunners thanks to their healthy hauls in the precursors, but this does not necessarily mean any other film isn't a threat. I really believe that there could be a wealth of upsets come Oscar night, ranging from the tech categories like Best Visual Effects to the big prize, Best Picture.
To say that Avatar pretty much has all of the tech categories locked is an overstatement, I believe some of the tech categories are a touch shakier than most would believe. I especially see it possible in Best Visual Effects against Star Trek and District 9 and, also in Best Film Editing. If anything, the 9 nominations for The Hurt Locker shows, is that it is a threat across the board, especially in Editing. As for Best Cinematography, I think the cinematographers might throw a bone to something like The White Ribbon, or to Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. As well, I believe that there is a storm brewing in terms of Best Original Score, and it's a storm in the shape of The Hurt Locker. While Michael Giacchino is the clear frontrunner in this category for Up, the fact that The Hurt Locker showed up surprisingly in this category when it was nowhere near here in the precursors, makes me think it could be the dark horse no one saw coming. Now, moving on to the big guns.
Best Actress has some mystery in terms of the heavyweight bout between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep, but is everyone just saying that just because they don't want to bet against Meryl? I think Gabourey Sidibe or Carey Mulligan are the dark horses that might surprise everyone come Oscar night. Here's my thought on this. Many are clamoring for Streep to win because she hasn't won in so long, and Bullock has never won, but Mulligan and Sidibe both will get the indie vote. As for the battle between Bullock and Streep, the vote could be split between the two to allow Mulligan or Sidibe the win. It has happened before (i.e. Marissa Tomei).
As for Original Screenplay, while many are placing bets on Tarantino to win, I think Up presents a really strong case since it has been so well received and was nominated for Best Picture, not to mention it could give Pixar its first writing Oscar, seeing as how they've been nominated for so long in this category and never won. Though could Mark Boal jump ahead of everyone and ride the tidal wave of The Hurt Locker's success to win? As for directing, while most would place their bets on either Kathryn Bigelow or James Cameron, I think if the Academy can finally accept Tarantino's eccentricities, he could surprise all and win, not to mention Jason Reitman is quietly lurking in the shadows for Up in the Air to be a safe bet if Cameron and Bigelow happen to split the vote. Now onto the big potential surprises, those in Best Picture.
This year not only has the Academy spread the Best Picture race from 5 to 10 nominees, but they've also instituted a new voting system for the top category, in the form of preferential voting. What it is, is basically all of the members of the Academy are given ballots with the 10 films on them, and then they would list their choices on the ballot, in order from 1-10 (1 being the best, and 10 being the weakest link). My guess is a point system will be utilized, such as 10 points for every number 1 vote, 9 for every number 2 vote, etc. Basically what this means, is that the highest number of number 1 votes doesn't matter, what matters is how many total points the individual film ends up with, which could mean one thing, what is thought to be the clear frontrunners now might not be what has their names called out of that envelope come March 7th.
Is The Hurt Locker really the frontrunner when taking into account this new method of Oscar voting? The Hurt Locker only netted $12 million at the box office, it is assumable that a great many in the Academy haven't seen it, where as with a film like Avatar and The Blind Side it can be said that the majority in the Academy have seen them. It doesn't matter if those that saw The Hurt Locker put it as number 1 on their ballots, what will matter is the film that winds up with the majority of number 2 and number 3 votes. So Avatar could be the ultimate victor, but from what I understand, industry love for the film isn't as great as the critics, which with the Academy, the industry is what matters. A great many in the Academy loved The Blind Side, or else it wouldn't have been nominated, so I truly believe it could be a potential dark horse.
Speaking of safer surprises now, I think District 9 could also benefit from the populace vote, but what could help it is what might also hurt it. It is a piece of fanboy fare, and those that love it really love it, and those that don't, are very vocal, so in all actuality I could see The Blind Side win over a District 9 victory (a similar case for the Coen's A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds). Of course, Precious and An Education have enough of the artsy crowd and enough mainstream followers behind them to where anything could go in their favor, but I strongly doubt they'll be the ones to pull off the upset, if any film does.
Honestly, the two films that I think will benefit the most from the preferential voting system is Up or Up in the Air. Up in the Air and Up were both critical and commercial successes that are well loved by the industry, making them both safe bets to potentially bring home the Oscar, but also making it entirely possible. So many in the Academy loved Up and Up in the Air, I could see either two films being many of Academy voters number 2 and number 3 votes, where if one of these films gets enough votes like that, it will win.
For fun though, I'll just finish up today by saying which film I think has the best chance of pulling off the upset come March 7th, and the one I personally hope wins, Up in the Air. Till next week!
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