The Oscars are finally less than a week away, and for someone like me, this is my favorite night of the year, so to say I'm excited is an understatement. Still, there is work to do if you love to try and predict the Oscars, much like myself. It is here, within these final days before the Oscars that the discussion and debate gets most heated, and it's due time that I take a swing at cracking the three categories that I believe have the biggest question marks over them come this Sunday night: Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress, and the biggest of all, Best Picture.
Now, I'm not gonna sit here and rant too much about my thoughts of the Twilight cast presenting an Oscar a piece, or the rumors that the dancers from So You Think You Can Dance will perform, or even the outrage of not having the original song contenders perform their material. To put it simple, I don't approve at all with what the producers of the show seem to be trying to do with the most prestigious night in the film industry, essentially trying to make it a People's Choice clone. I wont deal with that, after all, the Oscars is, and always will be, about the films themselves and not about the pageantry that goes on around it, and I have no doubt Steve Martin will deliver the laughs (Alec Baldwin, a little more questionable to me). But back to the real discussion of today's post.
Right now, Best Original Screenplay is one of the more complex categories to try and call. Really, it's like you could throw up just about all of the nominees on any given day, and which ever one lands face-up is the winner. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up all have a play at the prize. I don't think The Messenger or A Serious Man have enough support to lead them to victory over such obvious heavyweights. It's kind of funny. There are days where I think The Hurt Locker train has pretty much locked this one into place, but then I just remember the gushing amount of love the Academy seems to have for Tarantino, and Pixar has been ignored too many times before here, and now with Up nominated for Best Picture as well, it would seem a cruel injustice to not toss the Oscar their way. When you get right down to it, I think Inglourious Basterds is too polarizing for this particular branch of the Academy, and I still think many screenwriters don't respect animated writing as much as they do live action, so I think the ultimate victor will be The Hurt Locker, but if I were to call an upset, it'd be Up.
On to Best Actress. This category has been one of the hottest of debate for months upon months. There was a time where it seemed like a clash between Meryl Streep and Carey Mulligan, and then Streep and Gabourey Sidibe, back to Streep and Mulligan, and then after the Critic's Choice and the Golden Globes, it became Streep and Sandra Bullock. The only one who has never had a legit shot at this award was Helen Mirren, but she's too recent of a winner to get too much interest. Way back at the start of Oscar season, it seemed as if Sandra Bullock getting into this category was just wishful thinking, and now, one kind of feels stupid for even thinking such thoughts. Bullock is, I would say, the frontrunner at this point. I feel as if Sidibe peaked too early, while her possibly pulling off an upset is possible, the probability is so low there is no point in even placing your bets. As for Mulligan, I think Carey Mulligan has the strongest wild card play out of all of the nominees, she has a better shot than Sidibe, especially after winning the BAFTA Award a few weeks back, but Mulligan is still an underdog.
The real contender to steal Bullock's glory is Meryl Streep, because two Oscars and 16 nominations isn't enough. I know I'm being cynical, and I think that Streep is a magnificent actress, but she could literally just sit on a couch, read a phone book, and someone film it, and she'd be nominated. She gets nominated all of the time purely because she is Meryl Streep, not because the work that she was nominated for was deserving, but because she is bigger than any role she takes on. Seriously, Streep hasn't done top tier work on the level of Kramer vs. Kramer or Sophie's Choice since about the '90s. I've said it before, but the auto-pilot vote for anyone who doesn't want to think outside the box will go to Streep, but in all honesty, Bullock will probably only have one shot at this, and that is why I think she wins come Sunday. Bullock has been around since the '90s, and this is only her first nomination, it is safe to assume that this could possibly be the only time she will ever be nominated for such an award, and she is so well loved by those in Hollywood, I think they understand that and will give it to her. Now onto the big one, Best Picture.
It's very easy to just look at Best Picture and say, "Oh it's gonna be The Hurt Locker," but with the new institution of preferential voting (as I detailed about a month ago in an edition of Oscar Watch titled, "Potential for Surprise") it could literally go a great many ways.
The way I see Best Picture at this moment is in four different categories. There are the films that are the frontrunners (i.e. The Hurt Locker and Avatar), there are the upset spoilers (i.e. Up in the Air and Up), there are the possible upsets but not very likely films (i.e. Precious, An Education, and The Blind Side), and then there are the no chance on Earth will they win films (i.e. District 9, A Serious Man, and Inglourious Basterds). The latter category, the three films included are just so polarizing that they will get few number one votes and for the most part will receive 5-10 rankings on most of the preferential ballots. The possible upsets but not very likely, like Precious, have a better play at it, and they all seem like traditional Oscar bait, but they're just not solid enough contenders to bring home the gold; while I think An Education is on the fence and could be a potential surprise, it's still nowhere near the level of the upset spoiler films. The real films you need to keep an eye on for this Sunday are Up in the Air and Up.
I've been hearing rumblings all across the internet that both Up in the Air and Up have received a fair number of number one votes on the new ballots, as well as a large multitude of numbers 2 and 3 on a great many ballots. They are two of the more well-loved films in the industry this current Oscar season. While Avatar has a ton of support, it has plenty in the industry who are not fans, and The Hurt Locker is somewhat similar, being about such a political topic, not to mention the film only made $12 million at the box office, so many still have yet to see it and most votes are already cast. Up in the Air was seen by a highly respectable number, and Up was a blockbuster at the box office, so the thought that neither of these films have been seen enough does not affect them. Really, I'll just wrap this up by saying, don't assume that it will either be The Hurt Locker or Avatar on Sunday standing up on the stage giving a speech, but if you wanna place a bet, the safe money is on The Hurt Locker. Though if you're a risky Oscar gambler like me, Up in the Air.
That's it for this edition of Oscar Watch. This Sunday I will be doing a special edition of Oscar Watch listing my final set of predictions for the Oscars, and then on Monday I'll take a break, and next Tuesday I'll return and give my post-show thoughts on the winners and what predictions I got horribly wrong. Till then.
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