Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Predicting the Academy Awards - Part 1!

It is nearly upon us, and I am both excited and sad that the season is nearly over again. The Academy Awards are this Sunday, and with all of the ballots now officially in, it is time to offer up my final set of predictions for this upcoming Sunday. Now, here's the drill, I'm doing this in two parts, with Part 1 I will predict every category save for Best Picture, then in Part 2 I plan on running down all ten movies up for Best Picture and rank them in order from the least likely to win to the movie that I think will take home the prize. As well, as I typically do, I will not try and predict the Oscar shorts categories because living in Birmingham, AL, doesn't do me any wonders in terms of trying to predict those categories. In general, I am foreseeing big returns for Inception in the tech categories, that is where the Academy's love for it will come, and more of The King's Speech in the majors, though I'm still holding out for The Social Network in a few areas. So without any more waiting, my predictions for the Oscars:

Best Visual Effects - Inception

Best Sound Mixing - Inception

Best Sound Editing - Inception

Best Music (Original Song) - Toy Story 3

Best Music (Original Score) - The King's Speech

Best Film Editing - The King's Speech

Best Makeup - The Wolfman

Best Costume Design - Alice in Wonderland

Best Cinematography - Inception

Best Art Direction - Alice in Wonderland

Best Writing (Original Screenplay) - David Seidler, The King's Speech

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Best Supporting Actress - Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale, The Fighter

Best Actress - Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Actor - Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Best Director - David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Documentary (Feature) - Inside Job
I would have leaned towards Exit Through the Gift Shop a few weeks ago, but since the recent debate as to whether or not the movie is in fact truth or a mockumentary probably lost it the Oscar, so I've gotta go with Inside Job. A safe pick, political, current, but not as obnoxious as say a Michael Moore film.

Best Foreign Language Film - Biutiful (Mexico)
This is the category I know the least about, because so many of these foreign flicks don't come to my area. I do know that the Academy tends to vote with their heart in this category, so I definitely could see this one with the prize, and obviously there is love for this one with Javier Bardem up for Best Actor.

Best Animated Feature Film - Toy Story 3
I really don't see this one going to any other movie, though I do think there is a small chance that How to Train Your Dragon could spoil Toy Story 3, but I think that the Academy will want to honor Pixar's flagship franchise with an actual Oscar to go alongside the honorary award that John Lasseter got for the first Toy Story in the '90s.

So that's Part 1, come back in a few days for my prediction for Best Picture!


  1. I actually agree with everything you say for once.

    I think the doc is going to be Restrepo. Inside job is still really good though, but it's made by the same director of "No End in Sight" which also got the oscar in 2007. Judging by the category's past history I'd say lightening doesn't strike twice and focus on Restrepo since it's about a little known war that we've all seemed to forgotten about.

    How's it going by the way?

  2. Pretty good, actually. I'm in ethno with AJ, we're making a movie on Japanese teenagers in Birmingham who are shipped over here with their parents who are like business execs and engineers at Honda. It's actually really fun, they even have their own Japanese school that meets at Jeff State on Saturdays so that they can keep up with their Japanese studies. Our main informant is this 14-year-old Japanese chick and she's pretty cool.

  3. that sounds like an awesome idea. Sorry, i was wrong about the doc. looks like you were right about inside job. let me know how the doc goes, i'd like to see it.