Sunday, February 26, 2012

Predicting the Oscars!

It's finally here, the 84th annual Academy Awards! As a fan of movies, this is one of the more exciting nights of the year for me. While the movies I love aren't always nominated, or even come close to winning if they are, the whole award shindig is like a big celebration on movies over the past year in general. Even still, I enjoy predicting the big show, and so here I am. Call it a hobby of mine, but I always try to go out of the way to see any movie over the course of the year that has any Oscar buzz whatsoever. With that said, I've set a new record for myself, having seen 8 out of the 9 Best Picture nominees (the only one left unseen is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, and blame that on the movie's poor release schedule).

As I see it, The Artist will be the one to beat in most categories come tonight. While the tech categories will be the true test to how much the Academy loves The Artist. I am not seeing a clean sweep here, but rather it being one of those years where they spread the wealth a bit amongst a great many different movies. However, the biggest drama comes in the Best Actor and Actress categories.

Can Jean Dujardin from The Artist eek out the win past George Clooney's performance from The Descendants? So far I would say they're neck and neck, and as I said, it all boils down to how much the Academy really loves The Artist. Then there is Meryl Streep vs. Viola Davis in Best Actress. Streep is always a threat to win here, similarly they have been neck and neck throughout the awards' season, winning a pretty equal amount of hardware. As for Best Original Screenplay, will Woody Allen best The Artist here for Midnight in Paris? We'll see. On a side note, I don't do the short categories because I did not have access to all of the shorts in enough time to feel as if I could make a reasonable prediction.

Those are the categories with the hottest races, now on to the predictions:

Best Sound Mixing - Hugo
Best Sound Editing - Hugo
Best Visual Effects - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup - The Iron Lady
Best Film Editing - Hugo
Best Costume Design - Hugo
Best Art Direction - Hugo
Best Cinematography - The Artist
Best Original Song - "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets
Best Original Score - The Artist
Best Documentary Feature - Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Best Foreign Language Film - A Separation
Best Animated Feature - Rango
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay - Midnight in Paris
Best Supporting Actress - Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Supporting Actor - Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Actress - Viola Davis, The Help
Best Actor - Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Director - Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Picture - The Artist

I'm predicting it to be a big night, split down the middle between The Artist and Hugo, with Hugo sweeping the tech categories for the most part, however The Artist will win big with the major awards. I'm predicting 5 wins for The Artist and 5 for Hugo. That seems realistic to me, however anything can happen come Oscar night. Remember the shocker when Crash beat out frontrunner Brokeback Mountain in 2005? It is never impossible for the impossible to occur on Oscar night, so tune in tonight on ABC!

UPDATE: I went 15 for 21! A new record for me. How did everyone else fare?

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