Sunday, January 27, 2013

SAG Predictions

Tonight is the 19th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards.  We are effectively midway through awards season, and tonight's awards will either validate certain films' Oscar chances or tear them down.  It will be real telling tonight if Argo wins Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture without a solitary performance being nominated.  If Argo wins the big award tonight, it will effectively make it a threat to win Best Picture at the Oscars without being nominated for Best Director, especially after winning the Producer's Guild Award last night.  On the other side, if Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook win, then it will really just be like flipping a coin to see which film is crowned Best Picture at the Oscars.  Personally, with so much sympathy poured out towards Ben Affleck since he got snubbed by the Academy, I think that will have been like a rally call and will win the big award for Argo tonight, and right now my money is on Argo being the frontrunner for Best Picture at the Oscars.

Other awards tonight that will be real telling on the Oscar race are Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role, and Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role.  The Best Actress race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, which was effectively split 50/50 after the Golden Globes with Chastain winning for a Drama and Lawrence winning for a Comedy/Musical, will really start to shape up after tonight.  They are no longer separated by genre and it will be real telling if Lawrence beats Chastain, not just for her Oscar chances, but also the chances of Silver Linings Playbook across all other awards shows.  Then there's Supporting Actor, which is quite possibly the most heated race at the upcoming Oscars, and is easily the most heated race you'll see tonight.  All five men nominated are worthy of winning the award and all have a case for it.  I think it's safe to say that whoever takes home the award will be standing at the podium come Oscar night, however I could always be wrong, seeing as how Christoph Waltz got the Oscar nod and the Golden Globe win, and yet was replaced by Javier Bardem in the SAG line-up.  Just adding more fuel to the fire.

Below you'll find my predictions for tonight.  Per usual for this type of show that awards both TV and film actors, I only cover the film side of things because I just honestly don't feel as if I am knowledgeable enough on the TV front to make good calls, though I will say, expect to hear lots about Homeland tonight.  My only vague TV prediction.  As well, I will be back after the show to update with my final thoughts on the evening.  If you wanna check out the SAG Awards, you can watch either TBS or TNT at 8/7 central tonight, with E! doing the red carpet starting at 6/5 central.  For a full list of nominees, check here, and for my predictions, they are posted below:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture 

UPDATE:  So there you have it, I think it's safe to say that Argo is now the legitimate frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar after winning Outstanding Cast tonight at the SAG Awards.  As well, after Affleck's snub with the directing branch in the Academy, I think it's a safe bet to say he'll also take home the DGA Award too. 

As for my final tally tonight, I went 5/6, one of the better performances I've had in a while.  I almost thought I was gonna go 6/6 till Jennifer Lawrence won over Jessica Chastain, meaning the Best Actress Oscar race is a firm battle between Lawrence and Chastain to see who will get it.  Will Chastain's more serious performance net her the win, or will Harvey Weinstein find a way to push Lawrence into the victory circle?  Time will tell.  All tonight really did though was reaffirm how up in the air so many Oscar races are this year. 

From Best Director, which could easily go to Spielberg, Ang Lee, or David O. Russell, to Best Actress, all the way to Best Supporting Actor, which did not get cleared up in the slightest with Tommy Lee Jones's win tonight.  Best Supporting Actor could easily go to Critic's Choice winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman, or to Golden Globe winner Christoph Waltz, or to Tommy Lee Jones, or to De Niro or even Alan Arkin, all five have a shot.  Wouldn't it be funny if a different actor out of the five each got an award, with a different one getting the Critic's Choice, the Golden Globe, the SAG award, the BAFTA, and the Oscar?  I'm really just spitballing here. 

This truly is one of the most exciting awards seasons in my lifetime and I don't think I've ever been more excited for Oscar night.  For a full list of the SAG award winners, check here.

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