Predicting the Oscars!

They're finally here!  It only took an entire year to get this point, and I couldn't be anymore excited.  This is my personal favorite night of television every year.  While there have been years that were more entertaining than others (typically based upon whoever's hosting), you never truly know when someone is going to get up and make that once in a lifetime acceptance speech or whatnot, so there truly is no way to gauge how awesome or entertaining of a night it will be until you finally see it all unfold.  Hopefully Seth MacFarlane will be able to put his crass, political humor behind him and come out with some good jokes as tonight's Oscar host.  We'll know for sure tonight, but what I can try to predict is which films will win the Oscars.

This truly has been a special year for an Oscar enthusiast like myself.  Not only was 2012 such an amazing year of filmmaking all around, but this was legitimately the tightest Oscar race we've had in the past decade.  While we can all pretty much count on Argo coming out on top, there are many categories that could easily go this way or that.  Take Best Actress which could easily go to Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain, and possibly even Emanuelle Riva.  Then Best Director, where the perceived frontrunner, Ben Affleck, didn't even net a nomination, which could possibly get Spielberg his third Oscar, or Ang Lee his second, or even get David O. Russell his much deserved first.  Let's not even talk about the put-the-nominees-in-a-hat-and-draw nature of Best Supporting Actor to see who wins.  What does this mean if you're trying to predict the Oscars?

Well, it means that this is the hardest year since I've been doing this to make good, informed decisions, because I truly believe that this will be a year where the Academy will spread the love and not just award the same film over and over again, like they've been content to do for the past five years or so.  Will Argo win the most Oscars?  Possibly not, even though it is most likely to win Best Picture.  Of course, the big question is, can anything else possibly be announced as the Best Picture winner come tonight other than Argo?  Perhaps.

If any film were to beat Argo, it would be consensus pick Silver Linings Playbook, which could pull off the upset.  Playbook played exceptionally well with the actors, which is the largest branch of the Academy.  The film received a nomination in all four acting categories, a rare feat whenever it comes to the Academy Awards.  With the actors clearly in love with the film, and with them making up the largest percentage of voters, we could see an upset brewing.

Not to mention the fact that the Academy seemed to go its own way in nominations this year, not really mimicking the Golden Globes or any of the guilds in many major categories, so it's entirely possible the Academy as a whole isn't as in love with Argo as everyone thinks they will be.  Personally, I wouldn't put my money on anything other than Argo, I'm just saying that it's a possibility that another film might win tonight given Affleck's snub and the huge love for films like Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook poured out from large branches of the Academy, most notably, the actors.  If a film other than Argo wins Best Film Editing and/or Best Adapted Screenplay, two awards that typically go hand and hand with Best Picture, we may be in for a big surprise when Best Picture is announced.  That's all I'm saying.

With all this said, it's time to predict who I think will win tonight's Oscars.  For a full list of nominations, go here, and as always, tune back in after the show to see what my final thoughts on this year's Oscar winners are.  So, without further ado, my predictions for the 85th Academy Awards:

Best Short Film (Animated) - Paperman
Best Short Film (Live Action) - Curfew
Best Documentary Short Subject - Mondays at Racine
Best Sound Mixing - Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing -  Skyfall
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Les Miserables
Best Costume Design - Anna Karenina
Best Production Design - Les Miserables
Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi
Best Original Song - "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Best Original Score - Life of Pi
Best Cinematography - Life of Pi
Best Film Editing - Argo
Best Documentary Feature - Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign Language Film - Amour
Best Original Screenplay - Michael Haneke, Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio, Argo
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Director - David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Picture - Argo

The Oscars will air on ABC starting at 7e/6c.  See you after the show!

UPDATE:  So another year, gone.  It was an enjoyable Oscar show, by no means the best I've ever seen, but it had plenty of good laughs and heartfelt speeches to make the night a joy.  Not to mention, the spot on orchestra conducted by William Ross, which featured some marvelous musical selections.  Sadly, the show was fairly predictable.  There were really no big surprises.  Argo won where everyone predicted it would, there was no last minute surge for Emanuelle Riva like many predicted, nor did anything really go other than as planned, save for the shocking tie for Best Sound Editing, which was only the second tie in Oscar history for any award.  Other than that, a fairly dull end to what started out as one of the most exciting Oscar seasons in my lifetime.  Oh, well.  You can view the full list of winners here.  My final tally was 17 and 1/2 out of 24, a new record for me.  Till next year!