Sunday, January 12, 2014

Predicting the 2014 Golden Globes

Globes Hosts Amy Poehler and Tina Fey

It's that time of year again.  The start of the year is often a fairly weak time for new movie releases, and it's often so bleak outside that you don't really feel like doing a whole lot, which is why I love it so much that it's the time of the year when the movie industry feels its necessary for them to hand out awards honoring last year's crop.  The Golden Globes is the first major ceremony up this year, airing tonight on NBC.

While we've already had the People's Choice Awards, the Golden Globes is the first of the award shows that is considered a precursor to the granddaddy of them all, the Academy Awards.  With Oscar nominations coming in less than a week, we're off to the races, and while the Globes tend to skew a little more populist than the Oscars, expect whatever movies that win big at the Globes to receive a major Oscar boost.

This year's a little bit of a different year than previous awards' seasons.  There really is no clear frontrunner.  Currently, I'd call it a three way race between 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity.  It can go any which way, and with the Globes splitting the Drama and Comedy categories, classifying Hustle as a Comedy, the Globes more than likely wont settle much of the debate over which film is a frontrunner for Best Picture.

I say this all to say that no matter how the Globes pan out, it really doesn't mean a thing in regards to the Oscar race this year.  Of course, any type of award gives that individual film a boost purely because Academy members hear its name called out from onstage and get curious:  Is it really that good?  Throwing that film to the top of their screener pile to watch before voting on the Oscars, so a Globe win is still highly important in that regard.  We'll see what happens tonight.  As for now, here are my predictions for the 2014 Golden Globes (per usual, since I don't really cover TV, I only predict the film categories).

Best Original Song - "Let It Go" from Frozen
Best Original Score - Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave
Best Foreign Language Film - The Past
Best Animated Feature Film - Frozen
Best Screenplay - Spike Jonze, Her
Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress, Musical or Comedy - Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Best Actor, Musical or Comedy - Christian Bale, American Hustle
Best Actress, Drama - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor, Drama - Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy - American Hustle
Best Motion Picture, Drama - Gravity

As always, check back in later tonight after the show where I'll calculate my final tally and give a rundown of how I think the show went and what effects it will have on the Oscar race.

UPDATE:  So my final tally was 7 out of 14, a pretty bad total if I do say so myself.  There were a few surprises sprinkled in there, plus it's always hard when Comedy and Drama are split up into different categories.  The big story is that the Oscar race is still wide open for Best Picture.  With American Hustle predictably winning for Comedy, and 12 Years a Slave being victorious for Drama, it really comes down to this week's Critic's Choice Awards and SAG Awards to really paint a clearer picture as to the potential Best Picture winner.  At this point I'm feeling like if Gravity was going to get a Best Picture boost it would be with the Globes, and since that didn't happen it will have to simply hope to repeat its Best Director win from tonight at the Oscars.  Till Thursday's Critic's Choice Awards.

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