Thursday, January 16, 2014

Predicting the Critics' Choice Movie Awards - 2014

Another night, another award's show, this one being the Critics' Choice Movie Awards, airing tonight at 8/7 central on the CW.  The importance of this show is that it's all those movie critics you see on TV and read in newspapers that nominate and vote on these awards.  The taste of the Broadcast Film Critics Association often lines up very well with the films that eventually win their respective Oscar categories, so in terms of the show being a predictor for the Academy Awards, the Critics' Choice may be the most accurate.  Personally, I'm feeling the Best Picture winner tonight will either be American Hustle or 12 Years a Slave, but if there is a curveball, it will be direcotr Spike Jonze's Her, which could also surprise in directing.  Just keep that in mind.

Below you'll find my predictions for tonight's show.  As is usual, check back after the show for my final tally, as well as my thoughts on the show and how it will impact the Oscar race.  For a full list of nominations, go here.

Best Score - Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave
Best Song - "Let It Go" from Frozen
Best Documentary Feature - Stories We Tell
Best Foreign Language Film - Blue is the Warmest Color
Best Sci-fi/Horror Movie - Gravity
Best Actress in a Comedy - Amy Adams, American Hustle
Best Actor in a Comedy - Christian Bale, American Hustle
Best Comedy - American Hustle
Best Actress in an Action Movie - Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Actor in an Action Movie - Henry Cavill, Man of Steel
Best Action Movie - Star Trek Into Darkness
Best Animated Feature - Frozen
Best Visual Effects - Gravity
Best Hair & Makeup - American Hustle
Best Costume Design - American Hustle
Best Editing - 12 Years a Slave
Best Art Direction - Her
Best Cinematography - Gravity
Best Adapted Screenplay - 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay - Her
Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Acting Ensemble - American Hustle
Best Young Actor/Actress - Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor - Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Picture - American Hustle

UPDATE:  Well, that's that.  Overall I went 18 out of 28, that was better than the Golden Globes, but still not perfect.  The biggest thing we learned tonight is that if 12 Years a Slave manages to win Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards this weekend, then the Best Picture Oscar race is pretty much over.  As well, we also learned that the Best Supporting Actress race is still not set in stone, with Lupita Nyong'o getting a major boost with her win for her performance in 12 Years a Slave.  While I love Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle was not even her best performance of last year, so I think the critics made the right call.  The only other things of note in regards to Oscar is that Best Director and the other three acting categories held strong from the Golden Globes.  If Jared Leto, Cate Blanchett, and Matthew McConaughey, can go 3 for 3 with the big Oscar precursor awards with the SAGs on Saturday, then those races are all but tied up.  Similarly, while nothing is ever a done deal in Hollywood until its over, if Gravity director Alfonso Cuaron can win the Directors' Guild Award, then he too is about as sure a thing for Oscar as anyone else.  Till the SAG Awards on Saturday night.

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