Predicting the 2015 Oscars!

And it's here!  Tonight are the 87th Academy Awards on ABC!  Months upon months of other award shows are just the appetizer for the main course, which is tonight.  As such, while it would be easy to feel award show fatigue by this point, the Oscars are the Grandaddy of them all, and therefore I don't think anyone can ever be too tired for it, especially when there are so many up in the air races as there are this year.

This year's Oscars really are different than previous years where it looked like there was one single movie that was going to win everything, as a matter of fact, a lot of the top races (Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor) really are hard to predict.  In some ways, you might as well flip a coin and just trust your gut when predicting a few of these really tight categories.

Best Actor could really go either way with Michael Keaton or Eddie Redmayne, with a potential dark horse upset from Bradley Cooper (though the percentages are low on that one).  As for Best Director and Best Picture, it's really down between Birdman and Boyhood.  Some pundits think one movie will win both, while others think the awards will be split.  I think it will be a split and I hope that doesn't come back to bite me in the butt come tonight, but I really don't see Birdman losing Best Picture at this point.  If Birdman director, Alejandro G. Inarittu, wins Best Director, then I think Boyhood will win Best Picture, but if Boyhood director, Richard Linklater, wins Best Director, then I think Birdman will win.  That's how I think it will shake out in those top categories.  Other close races are the Screenplay categories (Adapted and Original).  I think The Imitation Game has the edge in Adapted, but only by a little.  I would not be surprised to see an American Sniper upset there or even one for Whiplash.  As for Original, it all comes down to The Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman, with Hotel's Wes Anderson having the edge at winning his first Oscar.  The other big up in the air race is Film Editing.  While the safe money is on Whiplash, if Boyhood wins that one, look out when it comes time for Best Picture.

Ultimately, I think the Academy will spread the love and no one film will win more than four Oscars.  I predict The Grand Budapest Hotel to win the most with 4, followed by Birdman and Boyhood with 3, and The Theory of Everything with 2, and then every other film that wins an Oscar will win only 1.  That's my predictions at least.  For my full list of predictions, look below, and for a full list of nominees click on this link.

Best Documentary Short:  Joanna

Best Short Film - Animated:  Feast

Best Short Film - Live Action:  Boogaloo and Graham

Best Sound Editing:  American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing:  Birdman

Best Visual Effects:  Interstellar

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Costume Design:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Production Design:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Film Editing:  Boyhood

Best Cinematography:  Birdman

Best Documentary Feature:  CitzenFour

Best Foreign Language Film:  Ida

Best Animated Feature Film:  How to Train Your Dragon 2

Best Original Song:  "Glory" from Selma

Best Original Score:  The Theory of Everything

Best Adapted Screenplay:  The Imitation Game

Best Original Screenplay:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Supporting Actress:  Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Best Supporting Actor:  J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress:  Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Best Actor:  Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Director:  Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Best Picture:  Birdman

As always, check back in later tonight to get my final tally of all that I got right and to get my final reactions to the show.  Till then, enjoy the Oscars!