It's Oscars time again. The 90th Academy Awards are tonight on ABC and with them comes a lot of baggage, most of it political and some of it to do with last year's Best Picture envelope mishap. Will Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway read out the right Best Picture winner this time? Hopefully. That would be bad to have a Best Picture fiasco occur two years in a row, though you have to wonder why the producers thought it would be a good idea to have the same duo present the award again. Overall though, I am not all that excited for this year's Oscars. The overtly political nature that will inevitably be a part of this show will make it a bit of a drag for those simply looking for entertainment, then there's the fact that the awards themselves will not yield too many surprises. As for Jimmy Kimmel, he'll probably be funny, he had some good zingers last year so I'm expecting a few more this year (hopefully he'll include more Matt Damon hijinks). All in all, I am not expecting a whole lot from this year's Oscars, so I am in a good position to be pleasantly surprised if everything goes off better than I expect.
Anyways, I am not predicting any huge shake ups in all of the major categories in regards to other award shows. While The Shape of Water won the Producer's Guild Award for Best Picture and it has the most nominations, actors make up the majority of the Academy and they really, really loved Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Then you factor in the female empowerment narrative of Three Billboards, the fact that it won the Best Picture equivelant at the SAG Awards, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs, and I will be very shocked if it doesn't win. What does that mean for your viewer at home? More than likely no movie that a large number of the people watching saw will win an award and that's part of the pretentiousness of the Oscars. Gone are the days that a Titanic or The Lord of the Rings would actually have a shot at winning anything. With Dunkirk being the most financially successful movie nominated for Best Picture, there is a scenario where it could walk away without a single award (a scenario that I don't think will happen, but could). As for the acting categories, if you've watched any of the other award shows these past few months, you know who's gonna win. The only real question mark in the major categories is Original Screenplay. Jordan Peele could win for Get Out, but the safer money is on Three Billboards to win there as well.
Without any more preamble, here's my full list of predictions for tonight:
Best Picture - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director - Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actor - Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress - Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Original Screenplay - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me by Your Name
Best Animated Feature - Coco
Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature - Icarus
Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049
Best Film Editing - Baby Driver
Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread
Best Production Design - The Shape of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Darkest Hour
Best Visual Effects - Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Score - The Shape of Water
Best Original Song - "This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman
Best Sound Mixing - Dunkirk
Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk
Best Short Film (Live Action) - DeKalb Elementary
Best Short Film (Animated) - Dear Basketball
Best Short Film (Documentary) - Heroin(e)
So I'm predicting that Three Billboards will win the most with 5 awards, followed by The Shape of Water with 3, and Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, and Darkest Hour each winning 2 apiece. The rest of the movies listed above will only win one Oscar. Hopefully I've improved on my lackluster tally from last year when I went 16 out of 24. Eek. Maybe I'll have done better this year. We'll know in a few hours.
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