Oscar Watch-Special Edition: Predicting the Big Show!

Update: 14 out of 21, my final tally. Not that bad, but could have done a lot better had I not tried going against the grain on Best Picture, just think I overestimated the preferential voting system. As for the Tech stuff I missed, those were always a toss up leading in to the show, so some of 'em I wasn't shocked to get wrong.

Alright, tonight's the night. The night I have been waiting for since this point last year. Like all good things, you have to wait, but time for the Oscars has rolled around once more. Tonight is the 82nd Annual Academy Awards on ABC, and I couldn't be more ecstatic. This is the culmination of a year's worth of predicting and whatnot, and now it is time to go big or go home (to borrow a line from Brink!).

This year is all out of sorts when it comes to the Oscars, so many new things instituted. In particular the change from 5 to 10 nominees in the field of Best Picture, not to mention the new preferential voting system for the same category that will ensure that the winner is in all actuality the best film based upon a general consensus and not the film that got the most number one votes. For the reasons listed above, this years Oscar race is far tighter than anyone really wants to think about. Surprises are definitely in order I feel. Anyhow, it's time for me to stop yapping and toss out my predictions for the Oscars! I have been waiting a whole year to say that.

On a side note, since I have not seen any of the shorts in contention, I find it unfair to try and predict those three categories, so there will only be 21 of the 24 categories predicted here. Now, as for the rest of the bunch, I have a few surprises lined up, so don't be too terribly shocked. Alright, here we go:

Best Picture - Up in the Air

Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Best Actor - Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Best Actress - Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay - Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker

Best Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Best Animated Feature - Up

Best Foreign Language Film - The White Ribbon

Best Documentary - The Cove

Best Cinematography - The Hurt Locker

Best Film Editing - The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects - Avatar

Best Sound Mixing - Avatar

Best Sound Editing - Avatar

Best Art Direction - Avatar

Best Costume Design - The Young Victoria

Best Make-up - The Young Victoria

Best Original Score - Michael Giacchino, Up

Best Original Song - T Bone Burnett & Ryan Bingham, "The Weary Kind," from Crazy Heart

That's it for my predictions. Tune in tonight to the Oscars on ABC and enjoy!

Movie Review: Alice in Wonderland

I adore fairy tales. Fantastical stories that take you to other worlds and have no rhyme or reason, they simply are and exist, without any complex explanation. Of course, now there are blockbuster-ified fairy tales. If that's what you want, then director Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland is for you.

This is not your ordinary Alice in Wonderland, it's actually a vague sequel to the original story, but rather than being an adaptation of the legitimate sequel penned by Lewis Carroll (Through the Looking Glass), it is an odd jumble of a story that seems as if it was dreamed up in a board room. Alice has been to Wonderland before, but cannot remember it. When she is 19 and faced with the horrible decision as to whether or not to marry her horrible suitor, Alice falls down the rabbit hole once more, rediscovers Wonderland, and learns that she is the only one who can usurp the Red Queen by slaying her all powerful dragon in a Lord of the Rings-esque climax.

It isn't fair to say Alice in Wonderland is a bad film, just cliche where it could have been so much more. One would think the marriage of bizarre director Tim Burton with the Lewis Carroll classic would be a perfect pairing, but the film was bogged down into the realm of cliche action/adventure. The film kind of plays out like a Lord of the Rings light. We must get this ancient sword, take it to the White Queen, and then Alice must challenge the Red Queen's dragon and slay it to save Wonderland. Am I the only one who finds something wrong with this? Alice in Wonderland is a fantasy, and not an action/adventure epic, but more of a fantasy that is more about the characters and not the epic backdrop. Speaking of fantasy, time was never taken to drink in the fantastical, to truly experience Wonderland, we would just hop on over to the next piece of the Hollywood puzzle. Still, there is a good amount to enjoy in the film.

Unlike most Tim Burton films, this isn't a macabre film that is simply macabre for no other reason than to be macabre. It is actually a kid-friendly film, and for Burton, is not weird at all, it is just true to the spirit of Lewis Carroll's story. The film is strikingly the most commercial friendly Burton film since the original Batman in 1989, and even though I was disappointed that the film was more of a big blockbuster than a straight up fantasy (like the books), the action/adventure elements were played well. While it was all a touch cliche, the dueling the dragon and the big epic battle at the end, was at least entertaining, even if it didn't feel like Alice in Wonderland. Not to mention, the characters are exceedingly charming. Johnny Depp is fascinating as the Mad Hatter, as well, Mia Wasikowska, who plays Alice, shines and is definitely a star in the making.

I think my greatest disappointment came with this film in seeing that the cast was all pitch perfect and the design of Wonderland was fantastic, not to mention a great many moments within the film showed promise of being one of those unforgettable movie moments, but none of that ever came to fruition and was just bogged down by the mechanics of the studio system. Really, the film is entertaining enough to watch, but repeat viewings really aren't desired, and by this film's favoring of cliche Hollywood blockbuster story over originality and straight up fantasy, it keeps the film from being something more memorable down the road.

I give Alice in Wonderland a D!

Great Shots: Departures

Some films just have astonishingly beautiful cinematography, and last year's Oscar-winning Foreign Language film, Departures is one of them. Not only is this Japanese film a truly wonderful, emotional experience, it is such a joy simply to look at the shots and be in awe of the beauty of the Japanese countryside in which the film is set. The colors of the film are extremely rich and vibrant, and the shot shown above is the key shot of the film that essentially represents the film's visual, and emotional prowess.

The shot shows our protagonist, Daigo playing his cello in front of the magnificent backdrop of the Japanese mountain ranges. Flowers spout up in the field around him, and from a pure visual standpoint, the shot is a winner. The colors are lush, and the shot itself is kind of epic even though the film is a drama. This shot though, is more than just a pretty picture, it is the perfect accompaniment to the film.

This shot occurs in the middle of the film, when Daigo finally begins to come into his own. Daigo has become an encoffiner (preparing dead bodies for funerals) which is considered a dishonorable profession in Japan. At this point, Daigo's wife has left him because of his job, but Daigo has begun to understand the importance that his newfound job truly holds upon life in general. Daigo plays the cello on this mountain range, alone in the frame, not a single sign of civilization in sight. It is his setting free from his own constraints and his own trepidations about his newfound job, and he sets free by playing the only thing that allows him to make sense of things, playing the cello (as he puts it at one point in the film).

Oscar Watch: Slicing and Dicing the Competition

The Oscars are finally less than a week away, and for someone like me, this is my favorite night of the year, so to say I'm excited is an understatement. Still, there is work to do if you love to try and predict the Oscars, much like myself. It is here, within these final days before the Oscars that the discussion and debate gets most heated, and it's due time that I take a swing at cracking the three categories that I believe have the biggest question marks over them come this Sunday night: Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress, and the biggest of all, Best Picture.

Now, I'm not gonna sit here and rant too much about my thoughts of the Twilight cast presenting an Oscar a piece, or the rumors that the dancers from So You Think You Can Dance will perform, or even the outrage of not having the original song contenders perform their material. To put it simple, I don't approve at all with what the producers of the show seem to be trying to do with the most prestigious night in the film industry, essentially trying to make it a People's Choice clone. I wont deal with that, after all, the Oscars is, and always will be, about the films themselves and not about the pageantry that goes on around it, and I have no doubt Steve Martin will deliver the laughs (Alec Baldwin, a little more questionable to me). But back to the real discussion of today's post.

Right now, Best Original Screenplay is one of the more complex categories to try and call. Really, it's like you could throw up just about all of the nominees on any given day, and which ever one lands face-up is the winner. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up all have a play at the prize. I don't think The Messenger or A Serious Man have enough support to lead them to victory over such obvious heavyweights. It's kind of funny. There are days where I think The Hurt Locker train has pretty much locked this one into place, but then I just remember the gushing amount of love the Academy seems to have for Tarantino, and Pixar has been ignored too many times before here, and now with Up nominated for Best Picture as well, it would seem a cruel injustice to not toss the Oscar their way. When you get right down to it, I think Inglourious Basterds is too polarizing for this particular branch of the Academy, and I still think many screenwriters don't respect animated writing as much as they do live action, so I think the ultimate victor will be The Hurt Locker, but if I were to call an upset, it'd be Up.

On to Best Actress. This category has been one of the hottest of debate for months upon months. There was a time where it seemed like a clash between Meryl Streep and Carey Mulligan, and then Streep and Gabourey Sidibe, back to Streep and Mulligan, and then after the Critic's Choice and the Golden Globes, it became Streep and Sandra Bullock. The only one who has never had a legit shot at this award was Helen Mirren, but she's too recent of a winner to get too much interest. Way back at the start of Oscar season, it seemed as if Sandra Bullock getting into this category was just wishful thinking, and now, one kind of feels stupid for even thinking such thoughts. Bullock is, I would say, the frontrunner at this point. I feel as if Sidibe peaked too early, while her possibly pulling off an upset is possible, the probability is so low there is no point in even placing your bets. As for Mulligan, I think Carey Mulligan has the strongest wild card play out of all of the nominees, she has a better shot than Sidibe, especially after winning the BAFTA Award a few weeks back, but Mulligan is still an underdog.

The real contender to steal Bullock's glory is Meryl Streep, because two Oscars and 16 nominations isn't enough. I know I'm being cynical, and I think that Streep is a magnificent actress, but she could literally just sit on a couch, read a phone book, and someone film it, and she'd be nominated. She gets nominated all of the time purely because she is Meryl Streep, not because the work that she was nominated for was deserving, but because she is bigger than any role she takes on. Seriously, Streep hasn't done top tier work on the level of Kramer vs. Kramer or Sophie's Choice since about the '90s. I've said it before, but the auto-pilot vote for anyone who doesn't want to think outside the box will go to Streep, but in all honesty, Bullock will probably only have one shot at this, and that is why I think she wins come Sunday. Bullock has been around since the '90s, and this is only her first nomination, it is safe to assume that this could possibly be the only time she will ever be nominated for such an award, and she is so well loved by those in Hollywood, I think they understand that and will give it to her. Now onto the big one, Best Picture.

It's very easy to just look at Best Picture and say, "Oh it's gonna be The Hurt Locker," but with the new institution of preferential voting (as I detailed about a month ago in an edition of Oscar Watch titled, "Potential for Surprise") it could literally go a great many ways.

The way I see Best Picture at this moment is in four different categories. There are the films that are the frontrunners (i.e. The Hurt Locker and Avatar), there are the upset spoilers (i.e. Up in the Air and Up), there are the possible upsets but not very likely films (i.e. Precious, An Education, and The Blind Side), and then there are the no chance on Earth will they win films (i.e. District 9, A Serious Man, and Inglourious Basterds). The latter category, the three films included are just so polarizing that they will get few number one votes and for the most part will receive 5-10 rankings on most of the preferential ballots. The possible upsets but not very likely, like Precious, have a better play at it, and they all seem like traditional Oscar bait, but they're just not solid enough contenders to bring home the gold; while I think An Education is on the fence and could be a potential surprise, it's still nowhere near the level of the upset spoiler films. The real films you need to keep an eye on for this Sunday are Up in the Air and Up.

I've been hearing rumblings all across the internet that both Up in the Air and Up have received a fair number of number one votes on the new ballots, as well as a large multitude of numbers 2 and 3 on a great many ballots. They are two of the more well-loved films in the industry this current Oscar season. While Avatar has a ton of support, it has plenty in the industry who are not fans, and The Hurt Locker is somewhat similar, being about such a political topic, not to mention the film only made $12 million at the box office, so many still have yet to see it and most votes are already cast. Up in the Air was seen by a highly respectable number, and Up was a blockbuster at the box office, so the thought that neither of these films have been seen enough does not affect them. Really, I'll just wrap this up by saying, don't assume that it will either be The Hurt Locker or Avatar on Sunday standing up on the stage giving a speech, but if you wanna place a bet, the safe money is on The Hurt Locker. Though if you're a risky Oscar gambler like me, Up in the Air.

That's it for this edition of Oscar Watch. This Sunday I will be doing a special edition of Oscar Watch listing my final set of predictions for the Oscars, and then on Monday I'll take a break, and next Tuesday I'll return and give my post-show thoughts on the winners and what predictions I got horribly wrong. Till then.

Great Shots!

I''m instituting a new series on the Review called "Great Shots!" What it is, is a series where I take a look at a film that I think has marvelous cinematography and then post my favorite shot from that film and then simply talk about, kind of gush if you will. It's similar to going to an art gallery, looking at a painting or a photograph and dissecting the technique and the simple beauty or mastery of the shot. The framing, the lighting, the symbolic meaning inherent within the shot, those are the topics. So keep an eye out as I will be kicking off this new series in the coming days.