Saturday, March 1, 2014
Predicting the 2014 Oscars
This has been a great Oscar season. What has made this Oscar season so great is that there is the possibility of upsets, which we haven't really had in a few years. While I personally think that 12 Years a Slave will manage to find its name called out when Best Picture is announced, that still doesn't mean that there isn't a good chance it might be Gravity, or even American Hustle. Personally, while I'm going to play it safe with my Best Picture prediction, I'm going to be pulling with all my might for the Gravity upset. The point I'm making here is that while I have been following this Oscar season, nothing has ever been truly set in stone.
When it looked like American Hustle might be running away with it after winning the SAG Award, the Comedy Golden Globe, and tying Gravity for the most Oscar nominations, it only took a little less than a week for that to change. Once 12 Years a Slave started to rack up the Critics' Choice, the Drama Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and the Producers Guild Award, it almost seemed as if everything was going their way, but not so fast. When 12 Years a Slave won the Producers Guild Award, they were in for the biggest shock in the guild's history, it was a tie, where Gravity also won the award. Along with the Directors Guild Award, and almost every Best Director honor given over this award season, Gravity was beginning to show some major muscle that could net it Best Picture at the Oscars.
Now, as we sit here getting ready for the show, while the safe money is on a 12 Years victory because it has won the most Best Picture or Best Film honors at other award shows, it does not mean an upset is not possible. That Producers Guild tie is especially intriguing, considering the fact that the PGA and the Oscar Best Picture have lined up more times than they haven't. Of course, all of this is a moot point if everything goes as most Oscar pundits have had it written for the past week or so now. I for one really wont deviate much from their thinking, because as I said earlier, while I am going to be pulling for my own personal favorite film, I have to be realistic.
I've known in my gut since last October, when 12 Years a Slave released to so much critical fanfare, that it was more than likely going to win the Best Picture Oscar purely because of its subject matter. I don't mean that as a slight on the film, I just have seen enough Oscar ceremonies to know the type of films the Academy are most prone to award, and a historical drama about a challenging time in history almost always wins when it's in play. There's a reason it's called Oscar bait, and while the Indie-produced 12 Years a Slave is a far cry from the typical Oscar bait, it still played like crazy to the Academy.
However, enough of my jabbering and on to more predictions. What you'll find below is my winner predictions in all 24 categories, and hop on over to this link for a full list of nominees.
Best Short Film (Animated) - Get a Horse!
Best Short Film (Live Action) - Helium
Best Documentary Short - The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Best Documentary Feature - 20 Feet From Stardom
Best Foreign Language Film - The Great Beauty
Best Animated Feature - Frozen
Best Sound Editing - Gravity
Best Sound Mixing - Gravity
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Dallas Buyers Club
Best Costume Design - The Great Gatsby
Best Production Design - The Great Gatsby
Best Film Editing - Captain Phillips
Best Visual Effects - Gravity
Best Cinematography - Gravity
Best Music (Original Score) - Gravity
Best Music (Original Song) - "Let It Go" from Frozen
Best Original Screenplay - Her
Best Adapted Screenplay - 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actress - Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actor - Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Actor - Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Picture - 12 Years a Slave
So if you're going by my predictions, I am predicting Gravity to win the most Oscars with 6 wins out of its 10 nominations, but I predict it to lose Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave, which I predict to win 3 out of the 9 Oscars it is nominated for. Interestingly enough, I predict that American Hustle will be shut out and not win a single Oscar. I just think there is stronger work in all of the categories that American Hustle is nominated for that overshadows it. Whether or not my going out on a limb for Captain Phillips in Editing will pan out, we'll see, but as far as the major acting awards, Director, and Picture, don't expect any surprises. That's my personal take as to how everything is just shaping up. Nothing is gonna stop Cate Blanchett, Matthew McConaughey, or Jared Leto, at this point. The only actor who might get upset is Nyong'o, but I still think she'll win it hands down. We'll know for sure come Sunday night.