Saturday, January 18, 2014

Predicting the SAG Awards - 2014

After tonight's SAG Awards we should know a whole lot about the Oscar race.  If 12 Years A Slave can pull off the hat trick of the major awards at the Golden Globes, the Critics' Choice, and the SAG Awards, then it will more than likely win the Best Picture Oscar.

If you've been watching the previous award shows this season, you probably know how all of these categories will pan out.  The only two that I feel are in flux are Supporting Actress and Ensemble, where Lupita Nyong'o could beat Jennifer Lawrence for Supporting Actress like she did at the Critics' Choice, and American Hustle's star-studded ensemble could eke past 12 Years A Slave to get the big win, putting it firmly back in the Best Picture Oscar race.  We'll see.  While I am predicting that most of the categories will be very similar to the previous award shows from this season, this is the first award show where actual members of the Academy are voting, so if there are any surprises they'll mean a whole lot in regards to Oscar.

As for now, here are my predictions for tonight's show.  As is usual, I only will predict the film nominees, because I am not versed well enough in the world of television to accurately predict those.  For a full list of nominees, go here, and remember to check back after the show where I talk about what the results mean in the Oscar race.  Till then.

Outstanding Stunt Ensemble - Lone Survivor
Outstanding Supporting Actress - Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Outstanding Supporting Actor - Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Outstanding Actress - Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Outstanding Actor - Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Outstanding Cast - 12 Years A Slave

UPDATE:  So 4 out of 6 isn't that bad.  Thankfully, the members of SAG-AFTRA saw fit to break up the monotony that seemed to be creeping into these categories over the past week, even if it was only a little bit.  At this point, after their wins tonight, I think it's safe to almost go ahead and call the Oscar race for Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, and Jared Leto.  If their names are not called out on Oscar night, I will be personally shocked.  As for Best Supporting Actress, it's really split wide open with Lupita Nyong'o winning for her performance in 12 Years A Slave.  While Jennifer Lawrence-lovers still have a shot, Nyong'o's win tonight and at the Critics' Choice on Thursday makes Best Supporting Actress the only acting category where there still might be surprise in regards to the Oscars.

As for Best Picture, well perhaps 12 Years A Slave is not the juggernaut that it was shaping up to be.  After losing the ensemble award tonight to American Hustle (which is usually one of the most accurate predictors for Oscar's Best Picture), and having only won one Golden Globe last weekend, only three Critics' Choice Awards on Thursday, and getting a few snubs in some key technical categories with the Oscar nominations the other morning, 12 Years A Slave might still be the Best Picture frontrunner, but only by a nose.  If any film other than 12 Years A Slave wins the Best Picture Oscar it will be American Hustle.  After it winning the Best Comedy award at the Golden Globes and then winning the big one tonight, it has about as many major Oscar precursor awards as 12 Years A Slave does with its Critics' Choice award for Best Picture and its Golden Globe for Best Drama.

At this point, it's now just a waiting game as the next televised award show doesn't happen until halfway through February with the BAFTA awards, Britain's equivalent of the Academy Awards, and the final stop before Oscar night (unless you count the Indie Spirits).  If the BAFTAs spring for Gravity, watch out, that film may come bounding back into the Best Picture race at the last minute, but I really don't think so.  While the BAFTAs gave Gravity the most nominations, they'll still probably opt for 12 Years A Slave or American Hustle, and whichever film wins the BAFTA will have the edge when it comes to the Best Picture Oscar.  Till then.

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