So with another Oscar season behind us, it's now time to take a break till late Summer, but do not fret, because before I shelve Oscar Watch for the next three months or so, I'm gonna make some predictions about next year's Academy Awards. The Academy has honored the best in film for 2009, and now that we're at least 1/4 of the way through 2010, the 2010 Oscars are starting to at least send some vague signals. But let's start with the obvious contenders at the moment.
Sundance 2010 back in January was the first good precursor to the Oscars for this year. Last year this was where two Best Picture nominees got their start, Precious and An Education, and I believe there are a few films that have a shot from the Sundance crowd for this next year's Academy Awards. One of the more obvious ones is the Grand Jury Prize winner, Winter's Bone, an indie-drama about a teenage girl searching for her drug-dealing father. I think this is a solid screenwriting contender, kind of like Frozen River two years back, but without a big name actor in the cast, it will be a hard sell for Best Picture, but if it continues to pick up steam it might be this year's Precious.
As for the rest of Sundance, one movie I think to look out for is Howl starring James Franco, but I really think that is just for Acting, the big one that I think will play heavily for Best Picture with a Little Miss Sunshine-esque feel is the comedy, The Kids Are All Right. The film tells the story of a lesbian couple's two children, made by artificial insemination, going on a search for their biological father. The film has recognizable stars, i.e. Annette Bening and Julianne Moore as the lesbian couple, and Mia Wasikowska fresh off Alice in Wonderland as the oldest of their children. The film I'm hearing could be a big threat in the Actress categories and Screenplay, but I also believe it has a strong play at Best Picture.
Filling out the bill so far this year for Oscar hopefuls is really only two films, Shutter Island and The Ghost Writer, but neither of those films will work it out to get nominated in the end, though a surprise directing nomination for Scorsese or Polanski is possible. Maybe The Runaways or the quirky black comedy, Greenberg, will find their way into talk, but it's a true longshot. One strong contender, mainly in Actress, is Chloe, a film about a prostitute played by Amanda Seyfried, it's the kind of daring performance the Academy loves from its younger stars, and with support from the likes of Liam Neeson and Julianne Moore, the film itself could get in.
That leads us to Summer, where the Cannes Film Festival in France should clue us in a bit more on Oscar hopefuls, maybe a few indie films will come out of the woodwork there, but in recent years it's kind of been a death nail for an Oscar hopeful to do well at Cannes. Though, with the Best Picture race now expanded to 10, it's safe to start playing the Summer movie game card as well when speaking of Oscars.
To me, the only Summer movies that even have a potential shot to wow with the Academy is Kick-Ass (and that's a big but), Iron Man 2, Toy Story 3, and the one I think that has the best shot of a Best Picture nomination out of all the big blockbusters this Summer, Inception. After being passed over for The Dark Knight, director Christopher Nolan might be getting a ton of sympathy from fellow Academy members, and not to mention Inception looks awesome and is a definite Screenplay contender. With Leo DiCaprio in the lead, this film is perfect blockbuster-styled Oscar bait, it might surprise come next March. Maybe a dark horse in our midsts? Some are saying Robin Hood and Angelina Jolie's Salt have similar cases, but I'm not buying it.
This now pits us into fall, where there will surely be many films that rise-and-fall at the Toronto Film Festival, the best precursor there is for the Academy Awards, and since it is not uncommon for a film to rise from nowhere in this competition and take the top prize at the Oscars, it's safe to say at least one film will wind up inconention, but which one? This now leads us to the Oscar bait season of Fall and Winter.
Clint Eastwood is back in full force with his supernatural thriller, Hereafter. This is the most intriguing Eastwood project I've heard of in years, so perhaps that might translate to an Academy-friendly affair, after being shut out for Invictus and Gran Torino. As well, director David Fincher returns with The Social Network, a film about the founder of facebook, but I seriously don't see this one being an award's film. Other than that there is Darren Aronofsky's new film, Black Swan, and Danny Boyle's mountain climbing epic, 127 Hours. Both of these sound too steeped in genre to win with the Academy, and this being Boyle's first film since Slumdog, it is dicey business, he'll either get tons more love, or will be seen as a disappointment.
One sure bet is director Terrence Mallick's return with his newest drama, The Tree of Life. With Mallick being a legacy of sorts, no way the film wont get in. Another fairly solid contender is director Edward Zwick's film, Love and Other Drugs. Zwick has gotten overlooked in the past for stuff like Blood Diamond and The Last Samurai, and this could be his big return to the Oscars after he wowed with Glory in the '80s. The one film to really keep your eye on though is the Coen Brother's remake of the John Wayne classic, True Grit. Respectable directors? Check. Respectable actor, Jeff Bridges? Check. Oscar bait in an almost forgotten genre? You bet ya. One final note, I'm getting a good vibe from Zack Snyder's animated film about Owl warriors, The Legend of the Guardians, so I'm throwing that into the talk.
So time to construct my 10 for next year's Oscars:
Hereafter
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
Winter's Bone
Inception
The Ghost Writer
The Legend of the Guardians
127 Hours
The Tree of Life
Love and Other Drugs
That does it for Oscar Watch here. It's been a fun ride, but it's now time to take a break from Oscar-gazing and relax. I'll be back with periodic Oscar updates about once a month till about November of this year, and that's when Oscar Watch will pick back up steam and be a weekly column again. Till then!
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